Releases from Europe:

February                             Forecast     Actual
German Retail Sales   (MoM)   +0.5%     - 1.6%
German Retail Sales   (YoY)   - 0.3%      - 0.3%

Recent comments made here concerning the fact that consumers may well be the deciding factor in any negative outcome in Europe were given some early credence from Germany’s February retail sales which declined by  -1.6% versus forecasts of a +0.5% rise. However, the annual was announced in line with forecasts at -0.3%.

Overall it tends to confirm what the retail PMI has told us but we have to remember that the retail PMI numbers were measured from March’s performance and this tends to suggest that the negative numbers should be repeated again next month.

Elsewhere the World Bank has revised growth forecasts for Asia lower reflecting that not even developing nations are going to beat the current global crisis. With credit hungry consumers in major industrialized nations suddenly taking more cautious stance to their own finances as they react to higher oil and food prices Asia could stand to take a harder hit than previously expected.

The following economic releases are due today:

February
Euro-zone Unemployment Rate       7.1%
U.S. Construction Spending (MoM) - 1.0%

March
Swiss SVME PMI      60.0
Italian Manufacturing PMI (F)           50.2
French Manufacturing PMI (F)           52.0
German Manufacturing PMI (F)         54.9
French Manufacturing PMI (F)           52.0
German Unemployment Rate          7.9%
German Unemployment Change     - 45K
U.K. Manufacturing PMI                   51.0
U.S. ISM Manufacturing                   47.5

For the rest of the day we have the European manufacturing PMI data which is forecast to remain just about unchanged but the risk is probably more to the downside following the rather dismal retail PMI numbers.

The U.S. ISM is expected to have declined also.

All in all there is very little to get optimistic about and this has caused the Dollar to drive higher as short positions are squared following yesterday’s failure to push the Euro above the 1.5901 high.

Watch support in the Euro at 1.5618 and 1.5655-65 while the Swissie finds a barrier at 1.0050-60 and above that at 1.0104. The Pound should find support around 1.9709-33. 

Note important support and resistance areas:

         USDJPY        EURUSD       USDCHF       GBPUSD
Res:  101.23-34    1.2785-92    1.0104-40    1.9905-43
Res:  100.37-64    1.5725-50    1.0050-60    1.9810-50

Spt:     99.00-15    1.5618-55    0.9980-00    1.9709-33
Spt:     98.37-54    1.5552-82    0.9900-15    1.9653-90

See Also

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