Releases from Europe:
      
April                                                Forecast   Actual    
French Business Confidence Indicator    108.0     106.0
French Production Outlook Indicator      - 13.0      - 9.0
Italian Consumer Confidence Index        99.6       99.8

French business confidence declined in April but the outlook improved mildly as did Italian consumer confidence. The past month has seen numbers look a little better although retail sales has looked a little vulnerable. A strong Euro still will provide a little more confidence. However, the Italian report was accompanied by a statement “With regard to prices, the view of the current dynamic is worsening, though the expectations for the next 12 months are more positive.”

So not all doom and gloom at this point but clearly very vulnerable to further rises in inflation, losses in employment levels and to any shocks to the banking system.

The following economic releases are due today:

March
U.K. Retail Sales                               (MoM)   - 0.3%
U.K. Retail Sales                                (YoY)   +4.3%
U.S. Durable Goods Orders                 (MoM)   +0.1%
U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex transp   (MoM)   +0.5%
U.S. New Home Sales                         (MoM)   - 1.0%
U.S. New Home Sales                                       584K

April
German IFO: Business Climate                        104.3
German IFO: Current Assessment                    111.0
German IFO: Business Climate                          98.0
U.K. CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends   
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims                  (19th)     375K
U.S. Continuing Claims                      (12th)    2960K

To come today are a few numbers that could generate some reactions.

The U.K. releases its retail sales for March together with the CBI Industrial trends. The outlook has been overwhelmingly bearish for the U.K. but numbers have been holding up in general but as we move further into the year and consumers are sapped of confidence as inflation rises, the impact on retail sales could well be decisive.

The immediate view for the Pound is still mildly bearish but probably stalling around 1.9690-10 to see a reversal higher.

The German IFO survey probably takes the top spot for market interest. Last week’s ZEW survey saw a positive current situation but the outlook was particularly bearish. Anything too damning could weigh heavy on the Euro – key supports at 1.5792-1.5814.

Finally the States releases its durable goods numbers and new homes sales for March. Needless to say the market is still particularly sensitive to bad U.S. data but even at its worst I can only see a period of consolidation develop and not quite yet any new lows against the Euro.

Note important support and resistance areas:

         USDJPY        EURUSD       USDCHF       GBPUSD
Res:  104.63-90    1.5985-18    1.0249-82    1.9944-72
Res:  104.18-25    1.5914-26    1.0192-20    1.9830-70

Spt:   103.01-21    1.5814-32    1.0103-29    1.9741-46
Spt:   102.32-66    1.5710-65    1.0020-60    1.9690-16

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