Latest news on Asian Morning Update 28th April 2008
| Calm before the storm? European releases from Friday: Q1 Forecast Actual March
The Pound does look set to remain in a 1.93 -2.02 range for several more months now though eventually should break lower. European officials maintained their comments on Forex rates, inflation being too high but also that the financial market turmoil not over yet. Nothing new though Noyer added that they are in the process of understanding precisely what triggered the latest developments and we will then find the appropriate way to help the market move in the right direction. In the States the final University of Michigan Confidence for April was revised lower which shouldn’t be a huge shock. President Bush took time just to remind everyone that Santa is on his way earlier this year with tax rebate checks beginning to hit bank account this week. “The money's going to help Americans offset the high prices we're seeing at the gas pump and the grocery store and it will also give our economy a boost to help us pull out of this economic slowdown,” he said. Unless of course they choose to save it for a rainy day. However, all this will be overwhelmed by the week’s figures which will reach a climax on Wednesday with the release of Q1 GDP numbers and the FOMC decision. Indeed, the GDP numbers in particular could well influence the Dollar significantly. Consensus forecast is for a marginally positive annualized number. If this proves to be the case then the entire argument for recession becomes more uncertain. Clearly the market has been pricing in a negative H1 growth with potential for a mild recovery in H2. A positive Q1 GDP could begin to change the picture and avoid an official recession that requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The European inflation and final retail & manufacturing PMI numbers are also out this week. Risk is for any mild downward revisions to knock home the chance that the differentials between the U.S. and Europe are less than forecast. Technically the Euro completed a perfect bearish reversal week and does warn of a potential larger reversal in trend. It certainly has come at the right time with Dollar cycles having made a low for the year (against the European currencies) and the expectations are for a general move higher for the Dollar for the remainder of the year. However, ahead of Wednesday’s numbers the chances are that the market is going to be playing a cautious waiting game. However, by the end of the week the strong risk is for a higher Dollar.
The following releases are due from Asia due today: Japan U.K. See Also
Read More Here
|
|
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240 255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360 375 390 405 |